Thursday, July 16, 2009

Emotional Rescue

Did you know that 90% of all Forex traders lose money? Now I bet you are questioning my zeal for trading the spot Forex market! If you are just starting out trading this market this not a very good omen. How do you ensure that you become the 10% that succeed, especially if given the fact that so many traders are willing to part with their hard earned cash? 

There are many reasons for these abysmal stats: lack of discipline, lack of money management skills, and the. I think the reason for the poor success rate is that 90% of the traders can’t manage their emotions while trading. This is the demon I fight daily. Money management and discipline are the symptoms, but emotions are the root cause! 

From day one of trading the currency markets I have heard every guru shouting at the top of their lungs to cut you r loses and let your profits run. Or that anyone can put on a trade, but it is the professional trader that knows when to exit a trade. It seems like a simple concept to let your profits run and take those profits when the market offers them up to us. But why can’t we get this right?

Emotions!!

The curse of all traders, the last and most difficult skill for us to overcome is to remove the emotions from our trading. Period!! Well I got news for you… you can’!! You, my friend, are a human being and thus an emotional being. OK, so we must trade emotional-less, but that is beyond the realm of most traders.

Letting emotions interfere with your trading can manifest in many ways. Let me just give you some examples of my past (and sometimes present transgressions):

Taking a loss and angrily reversing my position only to have the market resume in my original direction! The infamous revenge trading!
Listening to trade signals from members of my trading group instead of listening to my own signals and intuition (afraid I was going to miss the proverbial boat!).


And my personal favorite…
Having the market retrace and return almost to my original entry point, exiting and having the market execute a classic continuation pattern to original target (a target that was selected in advance before the trade was executed)! 



What do we do?


I have been following traders that focus solely on trading the news or other fundamental factors. Although this has some merit it won’t do squat for checking your emotions. Technical analysis should be your weapon of choice for keeping your emotions in check. Do you analysis before your trading session. Follow your trading plan (money management and strategy) as though your life depended upon it (your account balance certainly does!!). Visualize your trade execution like Tiger Woods does before every golf shot and above all, trust yourself! I repeat the following mantra before every trading session: 


“I am the world’s most disciplined forex trader. I trade my plan and I plan my trade. I trade with confidence and decisiveness. If the reason for me to be in a trade no longer exists I will cut my losses or take profit without hesitation.” 


I am an emotional person. It makes me feel alive, however when I trade I want to be a stone-cold, calculating pip capturing fool and leave the emotions for when I shank a drive into the water at the golf course.

Happy Trading!!

Click here to visit my lens!

BTW, did you see Tiger Woods at the press conference after winning the PGA Championship? A reporter asked him if he expects to win every major he plays. Without hesitation Tiger said “yes.” There was an awkward silence while Tiger waited for the next question and the reporter waited for Tiger to expand upon his answer. I loved it and want us all to trade with the kind of confidence and discipline Tiger Woods displays while playing golf!

Trust Yourself

When you turn on the TV (especially mainstream media) you are inundated with news of the demise of the dollar. Business news, national news and even your local news channels are leading into events with reports of the dollar and the economy. Analysts are featured and opinions are smattered across the airwaves in an attempt to provide an oracle response to current economic events.

Beware the source and follow your system.

In these volatile times it is easy to get caught up in the hype provide by all the news media and analyst. It is natural to want to look for guidance. Remember to trust your system and more important trust yourself. You, after all, are the single largest determinant of your success.

Your approach should remain consistent, almost impervious to the events occurring because you follow your plan with discipline and ruthless detail to executing at optimum performance.

Be disciplined and follow your plan. If market conditions don’t suite your style – sit this one out until conditions provide your with your personal edge!

Happy Trading!!

ForexJourney

How to Use Elliott Wave Analysis to Boost Your Forex Trading

This video lesson features Elliott Wave International Senior Currency Analyst, Jim Martens, demonstrating how you can use Elliott wave analysis to identify opportunities in your Forex trading.
This is just a short excerpt. For a limited time, you can access the full $79 online trading course, FREE. Visit Elliott Wave International for your free access.

You'll get all the details behind the analysis you see in this video preview.

Watch this full $79 course, FREE. Click Here! 






Happy Trading!!

Forex Jourey 
Posted by SparkyFX 
at 8:17 PM 
Links to this post  
Sunday, April 13, 2008
Do you have what it takes to become a successful Forex Trader? 
Forex trading, or any trading for that matter, is an occupation that requires experience and the accumulation of proficiency not unlike any other highly skilled profession. Whether you are a leading executive at a major publically traded company, a professional golfer or trading from your kitchen table, there are 5 key ingredients that one must possess in order to become successful.

1. You must be Passionate about what you do.

As Forex traders we all face one unique set of circumstances that does not exist in any other profession. We get rewarded for when we succeed and equally punished when we don’t! Could you image a corporate worker one quarter receiving a significant accomplishment bonus and the next quarter actually getting money taken from their paycheck for missing performance targets? Not on your life! 

We do as Forex traders and that is why passion for what you do will carry you through the tough times that are part of your trading business. Asked yourself why you trade currencies and would you still do it if Forex were not potentially lucrative? Your answers will be quite revealing. You’ve got to feel your passion for trading!

2. You have to Apply Yourself and work hard at it.

I talk to so many people that enter into Forex trading with the aspiration of getting rich quick. Without putting the time and energy into really getting good at trading I see them jump from strategy to strategy looking for the goose that will lay the golden egg and eventually quitting while blaming everything else, except the true cause.

I got news for you – you are the goose and your Forex education is the golden egg. The magic has always resided with the magician and not some strategy. Work hard at trading and the rewards will eventually come your way. Remember what Tiger Woods said, “Funny, the harder I work the luckier I get.” Apply yourself as a trader and it will be no accident when your account begins to blossom.

Bold 2009 Prediction for You

Here's my bold prediction for you in 2009!

You will break your trading resolutions by the end of February.
You will abandon your trading plan
You will fall into the same destructive trading patterns you resolved to change
Your account will earn the same or less than in 2008 
I know this this sounds harsh, but statistically speaking, that's what will happen to most traders. So, are you going to let this happen to you?

True, statistics cover populations and not individual traders. The fact is, its traders who are outside of th enorm and trade with focused discipline that really achieve their financial goals. When is now the time to re-focus with discipline and dedication and really commit yourself to your trading plan?

Today is January 15, 2009 and February is just around the corner. 

Let this be your wake-up call!

Be honest with yourself and focus with the discipline of a seasoned trader on staying true to your trading plan or risk becoming a statistic!

Happy "Disciplined" Trading!!

Complimentary eBook: Download the full 60-page Deflation Survival eBook now

Part 2 of Elliott Wave International’s expansive NEW Deflation Survival eBook is online now. The free 60-page eBook is packed with Robert Prechter's most important teachings and warnings about deflation. This is one of the most valuable resources EWI has ever offered at no cost. Learn more below or download it now – for free.
……………
Greetings,

We contacted you earlier this week to tell you about an exciting, free 60-page eBook our friends at Elliott Wave International have just put together. 

The new eBook is compiled from Bob Prechter’s most important teachings and warnings about deflation. 

Much like Prechter’s wildly popular Independent Investor eBook, this new Deflation Survival eBook will transform the way you think – about inflation and deflation.

Most financial experts were caught completely of guard by the real estate top in 2005. Many thought the Dow Industrials index would sour well beyond its 14,000 peak. Others saw weakness in U.S. stocks but said the dollar would also crash and hyperinflation would immediately ensue.

Only ONE analyst, that we know of, made the following forecasts:
Real estate, stocks and commodities would all top.
A monumental credit crisis would reduce lending and borrowing around the world.
The dollar would rally.
Deflation would reign across almost all asset classes.

That analyst’s name is Robert Prechter. 

Prechter – a man who’s made the arduous journey from fame to outcast and back – has scoured his complete writings on deflation and compiled the most important into a special 60-page Deflation Survival eBook.

Until today, most of the forecasts and advice in this still-prescient eBook have been released only to Prechter’s faithful subscribers. Now the 60-page Deflation Survival eBook can be yours for free.

Euro and British Pound Vulnerable on Weak UK Jobs, Euro Zone Inflation Data (Euro Open)

The Euro and the British Pound may face selling pressure in the coming session as the UK unemployment rate rises to the highest in nearly 12 years while Euro Zone inflation shrinks for the first time since the creation of the single currency in 1991. May’s Swiss Retail Sales report is also on tap.

Key Overnight Developments

• Australia’s Leading Economic Index Falls For the First Time Since February
• Bank of Japan Keeps Rates at 0.10% But Cuts GDP Growth Forecast, Extends QE
• Euro, British Pound Rise Against US Dollar on Overnight Stock Gains

Critical Levels



The Euro traded higher in the overnight session, adding 0.2% against the US Dollar. The British Pound followed suit, testing as high as high as 1.6337. The greenback lost ground as stocks followed Wall St higher across Asian exchanges, trimming demand for the safety-linked currency.

Asia Session Highlights



Australia’s Westpac Leading Index shrank for the first in three months in May, slipping -0.2%. The metric is designed to predict The annual rate of decline slowed to -3.9%, the lowest in at least 6 months. Westpac chief economist Bill Evans struck a cautiously optimistic tone following the release, saying “This reading supports the reasonable expectation that we have passed the worst, although the index is still contracting on a six-month annualized basis.” Evans has previously revealed that Westpac expects the economy will shrink 0.6% in the second quarter and contract at an annualized rate of -1.5% through the second half of this year.

Australia has shown tentative signs of stabilization as the government distributed over A$12 billion in cash handouts and committed to A$22 billion for infrastructure projects. The big question going forward is if current momentum can be maintained as the flow of stimulus cash dries up. On balance, the outlook seems far from rosy: the labor market continues to suffer, erecting barriers to a meaningful rebound in domestic demand, while the latest trade data reveals lackluster overseas demand for coal and iron ore, Australia’s top export commodities. Although the Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates unchanged at 3% earlier this month, Governor Glenn Stevens noted that there is still “scope for further easing of monetary policy”, identifying credit conditions and the effects of economic weakness on asset quality as “a challenge”.

The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged at 0.10%, as economists expected. Policymakers said that “economic conditions have stopped worsening” and restated expectations that the economy will begin to recover by the second half of the 2009 fiscal year (the six months starting in October). Maasaki Shirakawa and company did qualify their optimism however, saying “uncertainty over the economic outlook is high” and revising their growth projections downward to reflect a -3.4% GDP contraction (versus the previously reported -3.1%) in the 12 months to April 2010. The BOJ also extended standing credit easing measures, saying they will keep current loan collateral practices in place through March of next year versus December and pay interest on bank’s reserves through January 2010 (as opposed to October 2009 as originally planned)

Why to trade on Forex?

1. There is no commission fee for trading at Forex.
2. There is no intermediary, you can trade directly at Forex.
3. Forex is open 24-hours a day.
4. Nobody can influence the market for a longer period.
5. High liquidity.
6. Free demo accounts, analysis and charts.
7. Small accounts that allow everyone to try out his luck.

Hope this has answered a lot of questions you were asking yourself about Forex and that you can now start trading. Also make sure that you check out other articles on this blog which can help you earn your fortune.

Good luck to everyone!

What is Forex?

If you would go out on a dinner with your friends or family and you mentioned that you were trading on the Forex market most of them wouldn’t know what you were talking about. The worst thing is that most of the Forex traders that join the Forex market don’t know what they are doing. Understanding what Forex is, is the first good step to your success at Forex trading.


The foreign exchange market (Currency, Forex, or FX) is where currency trading takes place. It is where banks and other official institutions facilitate the buying and selling of foreign currencies. Forex transactions typically involve one party purchasing a quantity of one currency in exchange for paying a quantity of another. The foreign exchange market that we see today started evolving during the 1970s when world over countries gradually switched to floating exchange rate from their erstwhile exchange rate regime, which remained fixed as per the Bretton Woods system till 1971.

Today, the Forex market is one of the largest and most liquid financial markets in the world, and includes trading between large banks, central banks, currency speculators, corporations, governments, and other institutions. The average daily volume in the global foreign exchange and related markets is continuously growing. Traditional daily turnover was reported to be over US$3.2 trillion in April 2007 by the Bank for International Settlements. Since then, the market has continued to grow. According to Euromoney's annual Forex Poll, volumes grew a further 41% between 2007 and 2008.
Forex Turnover
 
Main foreign exchange market turnover, 1988 - 2007, measured in billions of USD. 
The purpose of Forex market is to facilitate trade and investment. The need for a foreign exchange market arises because of the presence of multifarious international currencies such as US Dollar, Pound Sterling, Yen, etc., and the need for trading in such currencies. Since you aren’t buying anything physical this kind of trading can be confusing. When buying a currency think of it as buying a part in that particular country’s economy because the currency rate reflects the economical situation of the country when compared to others. 
Currencies
 
List of most popular currencies on the Forex market 

Forex used to be a closed market because only the “big boys” because you needed between 10 and 50 million $ to open an account. But today, with the development of internet, online Forex brokers have the possibility to offer their services to “little” traders. All you need to start is a computer, fast internet connection and information which you can find on this page also.

This enormous market is like the dangerous sea where you can meet lots of sharks and dangerous waters but at the same time it is the only one where two weeks of trading can hypothetically bring you $1,000,000 out of $1,000 of initial investment.

This is certainly hypothetically because a lot of newbie traders deal with their trades as gambling, that surely bring them to having nothing in the end. You should always keep the phrase "be careful!" in your mind. This market would give you its profit possibilities only if you learn the basic things hard and make lots of demo trading.

The statistics is that as much as 95% of traders come to losing their money at Forex, 5% have profit and less than 1% of traders make large fortune at Forex. You shouldn't produce, sell or advertise anything trading at Forex. Your assets are your knowledge, experience and a small amount of cash.

This market is a platform for banks, transnational corporations and individual traders to change the currencies they possess into other ones. This is the spot Forex market. At this market you can trade with up to 1:400 leverage which means that you'll get $400 on your account for each dollar invested. So, you can trade with the $400,000 sum having invested $1,000 onto your account.
Forex is unique among other world markets because in any time of day and night, somewhere in the world, a financial centre is open for business, banks and corporations exchange currency all the time, with a little lower frequency during the weekend.

USD - Dollar Plummets as Wall Street Rallies

The Dollar plummeted on Monday against most of its major currency pairs. The Wall Street rally was initiated by positive comments from analyst Meredith Whitney about the financial Sector. She made her comments on CNBC (business channel), stating that banks shares will make short-term gains of 15%, and financial institutions will post better-than-expected results in the coming weeks. From this point on, Wall Street rallied, which led to risk-taking in U.S. equities and commodities. The result was a weak USD throughout yesterday's trading.

The USD lost 50 pips against the EUR to close at the 1.3974 level yesterday. Much of this behavior was due to investors' risk-taking. The GBP/USD climbed by a dramatic 120 pips to the 1.6244 level. This was partially due to the recent bottoming out of the British housing market. However, the greenback rose 50 pips against the JPY, marking the first daily rise in the pair for 2 weeks. This came about as forex traders dumped the Yen as it has been the number 1 safe-haven currency as of late.

Looking ahead to today, there is much vital data expected to come out of the U.S. economy. These are the Core Retail Sales, PPI (Producer Price Index), and Retail Sales, which are all set to be published at 12:30 GMT. If the results are worse than forecasts then we may see another day of USD bearishness. However, equal to or better-than-expected results may lead to a bullish Dollar going into mid-week trading.

EUR - EUR/USD Climbs Ahead of Economic Sentiment Publication

The EUR climbed against the Dollar on Monday ahead of the German ZEW Economic publication today. This is important as it is a leading measure of the health of the German and Euro-Zone economies. Analysts predict the figure to be 48.0, notably higher than the previous figure of 44.8. This helped the EUR climb against the USD yesterday. This pair also rose due to the equities rally in the U.S. and Euro-Zone. The result of this was traders dropping the USD in many cases for higher-yielding currencies, such as the EUR and GBP.

The EUR/USD climbed by 50 pips to the 1.3974 level, as the EUR recorded a bullish trading session against a number of its main currency pairs. The EUR/GBP rate, however, slipped 35 pips to 0.8601. This comes out as Britain saw sentiment in her housing sector at its highest since late 2007. The EUR saw its first gain against the JPY in several days, as the pair climbed by 120 pips to the 129.98 level due to traders buying into higher-yielding currencies. Additionally, traders realized that this pair had been undervalued in the past 2 weeks.

Today, there is much economic news coming out of both Britain and the Euro-Zone. At 08:30 GMT there is the release of the CPI (Consumer Price Index) and RPI (Retail Price Index) from Britain. At 09:00 GMT we can expect the publication of German ZEW Economic Sentiment and Industrial Production figures from the Euro-Zone. Today's data is vital in determining the levels of the EUR and GBP against their main currency crosses as Tuesday's trading gets under way.

JPY - Yen Collapses Against the Majors

The Yen collapse against the major currencies in Monday's trading session. This came about as global stock markets rallied, led by banking stocks. In turn, traders dropped the Yen for higher-yielding assets. This included currencies such as the GBP and EUR, and commodities such as Crude Oil. The Japanese currency also fell due to Japanese analysts stating that a downward correction for the Yen will soon be under way.

The USD/JPY slid about 50 pips to 92.89. The GBP/JPY pair rose dramatically by 180 pips to 150.89. The Yen's bearish behavior may continue into today's trading, as Monday's pessimistic Revised Industrial Production figures may put additional downward pressure on the JPY. Today, the Yen is expected to take the backseat due to a lack of key economic releases. Therefore, expect much market volatility to dominate JPY trading.

Crude Oil - Crude Oil Rebounds on Positive Sentiment

Crude Oil rebounded above $60 a Barrel yesterday on positive economic sentiment led by the U.S. The price of Crude benefited yesterday, as traders bought into risky assets. Additionally, the weak USD yesterday predictably led to bullish Crude prices. The other reasons for the bullish prices were due to Wall Street's rally and U.S Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner stating that the U.S. recession will be over within a few months.

Looking to today, there are 2 things that may drive up the Crude prices above the $60.50 mark. These include a weak Dollar, as the price of black gold is in Dollar's; a bearish Dollar usually leads to bullish Oil prices. Also, good economic figures from the U.S. could increase risk-taking, and lead to higher Crude prices as a result. The question now is can Crude Oil extend this long awaited daily gain?

Euro and British Pound Vulnerable on Weak UK Jobs, Euro Zone Inflation Data (Euro Open)

The Euro and the British Pound may face selling pressure in the coming session as the UK unemployment rate rises to the highest in nearly 12 years while Euro Zone inflation shrinks for the first time since the creation of the single currency in 1991. May’s Swiss Retail Sales report is also on tap.

Key Overnight Developments

• Australia’s Leading Economic Index Falls For the First Time Since February
• Bank of Japan Keeps Rates at 0.10% But Cuts GDP Growth Forecast, Extends QE
• Euro, British Pound Rise Against US Dollar on Overnight Stock Gains

Critical Levels



The Euro traded higher in the overnight session, adding 0.2% against the US Dollar. The British Pound followed suit, testing as high as high as 1.6337. The greenback lost ground as stocks followed Wall St higher across Asian exchanges, trimming demand for the safety-linked currency.

Asia Session Highlights



Australia’s Westpac Leading Index shrank for the first in three months in May, slipping -0.2%. The metric is designed to predict The annual rate of decline slowed to -3.9%, the lowest in at least 6 months. Westpac chief economist Bill Evans struck a cautiously optimistic tone following the release, saying “This reading supports the reasonable expectation that we have passed the worst, although the index is still contracting on a six-month annualized basis.” Evans has previously revealed that Westpac expects the economy will shrink 0.6% in the second quarter and contract at an annualized rate of -1.5% through the second half of this year.

Australia has shown tentative signs of stabilization as the government distributed over A$12 billion in cash handouts and committed to A$22 billion for infrastructure projects. The big question going forward is if current momentum can be maintained as the flow of stimulus cash dries up. On balance, the outlook seems far from rosy: the labor market continues to suffer, erecting barriers to a meaningful rebound in domestic demand, while the latest trade data reveals lackluster overseas demand for coal and iron ore, Australia’s top export commodities. Although the Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates unchanged at 3% earlier this month, Governor Glenn Stevens noted that there is still “scope for further easing of monetary policy”, identifying credit conditions and the effects of economic weakness on asset quality as “a challenge”.

The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged at 0.10%, as economists expected. Policymakers said that “economic conditions have stopped worsening” and restated expectations that the economy will begin to recover by the second half of the 2009 fiscal year (the six months starting in October). Maasaki Shirakawa and company did qualify their optimism however, saying “uncertainty over the economic outlook is high” and revising their growth projections downward to reflect a -3.4% GDP contraction (versus the previously reported -3.1%) in the 12 months to April 2010. The BOJ also extended standing credit easing measures, saying they will keep current loan collateral practices in place through March of next year versus December and pay interest on bank’s reserves through January 2010 (as opposed to October 2009 as originally planned).

Euro and British Pound Vulnerable on Weak UK Jobs, Euro Zone Inflation Data (Euro Open)

The Euro and the British Pound may face selling pressure in the coming session as the UK unemployment rate rises to the highest in nearly 12 years while Euro Zone inflation shrinks for the first time since the creation of the single currency in 1991. May’s Swiss Retail Sales report is also on tap.

Key Overnight Developments

• Australia’s Leading Economic Index Falls For the First Time Since February
• Bank of Japan Keeps Rates at 0.10% But Cuts GDP Growth Forecast, Extends QE
• Euro, British Pound Rise Against US Dollar on Overnight Stock Gains

Critical Levels



The Euro traded higher in the overnight session, adding 0.2% against the US Dollar. The British Pound followed suit, testing as high as high as 1.6337. The greenback lost ground as stocks followed Wall St higher across Asian exchanges, trimming demand for the safety-linked currency.

Asia Session Highlights



Australia’s Westpac Leading Index shrank for the first in three months in May, slipping -0.2%. The metric is designed to predict The annual rate of decline slowed to -3.9%, the lowest in at least 6 months. Westpac chief economist Bill Evans struck a cautiously optimistic tone following the release, saying “This reading supports the reasonable expectation that we have passed the worst, although the index is still contracting on a six-month annualized basis.” Evans has previously revealed that Westpac expects the economy will shrink 0.6% in the second quarter and contract at an annualized rate of -1.5% through the second half of this year.

Australia has shown tentative signs of stabilization as the government distributed over A$12 billion in cash handouts and committed to A$22 billion for infrastructure projects. The big question going forward is if current momentum can be maintained as the flow of stimulus cash dries up. On balance, the outlook seems far from rosy: the labor market continues to suffer, erecting barriers to a meaningful rebound in domestic demand, while the latest trade data reveals lackluster overseas demand for coal and iron ore, Australia’s top export commodities. Although the Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates unchanged at 3% earlier this month, Governor Glenn Stevens noted that there is still “scope for further easing of monetary policy”, identifying credit conditions and the effects of economic weakness on asset quality as “a challenge”.

The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged at 0.10%, as economists expected. Policymakers said that “economic conditions have stopped worsening” and restated expectations that the economy will begin to recover by the second half of the 2009 fiscal year (the six months starting in October). Maasaki Shirakawa and company did qualify their optimism however, saying “uncertainty over the economic outlook is high” and revising their growth projections downward to reflect a -3.4% GDP contraction (versus the previously reported -3.1%) in the 12 months to April 2010. The BOJ also extended standing credit easing measures, saying they will keep current loan collateral practices in place through March of next year versus December and pay interest on bank’s reserves through January 2010 (as opposed to October 2009 as originally planned).

EUR - EUR Pressured by German Economic Sentiment Figures

The EUR finished yesterday's trading session with mixed results versus the major currencies. The 16-nation currency extended gains versus the Japanese yen on Tuesday, to trade above $130.75 amid a broad sell-off in the yen. The EUR experienced similar behavior against the CHF as the pair rose from 151.40 to 152.10 by days end. The EUR did see bearishness as well as it lost around 60 pips against the GPB and closed at 0.8560.

Data showed German investors have turned more pessimistic than expected in July for the first time in nine months, a signal analysts say means the nation's economy will not start growing until next year at least. Euro-Zone industrial production data also disappointed, growing only slightly in May after a bad release in April and remaining 17% lower than it was a year earlier.

Optimism about the German economy has grown in recent weeks, with data pointing to stabilization in the manufacturing sector and government officials saying gross domestic product (GDP) could be flat or slightly higher in the April-June period, breaking a string of four straight quarters of contraction. But the Mannheim-based ZEW economic think tank's monthly index of economic sentiment fell yesterday to 39.5 from 44.8 in June, the first drop since October 2008, signifying that expectations for a speedy recovery have begun to fall. 

JPY - Yen Losing Ground on All Fronts

The JPY saw a bearish trading session yesterday, losing ground against most of its currency crosses. The JPY fell sharply against the Sterling Pound, pushing the oft-traded currency pair to 152.50. The Japanese yen experience similar behavior against the EUR and closed at 130.55. 

The Japanese market should have a heavy effect on the JPY versus its major currency counterparts, as the Overnight Call Rate will be announced today. The rate is expected to remain unchanged, but traders should pay close attention to the BoJ Press Conference that will follow to look for expectations of Japan's economic future. A bullish statement from the BoJ could lead some traders to believe that it is forecasting a rosier financial climate in Japan. 

Crude Oil - Crude Oil Inventories to be Released Today

Crude Oil prices rose slightly yesterday in seesaw trading as concerns about consumer demand tempered an earlier rally on optimism reflected in a global equities rally. Oil prices have fallen by about $14 a barrel, or 19%, since June 30th after poor employment data from the U.S. and Europe raised doubts that the global economy was poised for a strong recovery this year.

Today, the release of crude oil inventory data is likely to help determine the market's next direction for the black gold. Moreover, a release of a string of positive economic figures from the U.S could help its bullishness. Therefore, traders are advised now to make some profits as the price of Crude Oil is set to remain volatile in the short-medium term.

USD - USD Bullish on Goldman Sachs Earnings; Mixed from Retail Sales

The US Dollar completed yesterday's trading session with mixed results versus the major currencies as U.S. data on retail sales and producer prices beat expectations, boosting hopes that the economy is on a slow path to recovery. By yesterday's close, the USD had fallen against the GBP, pushing the oft-traded currency pair to 163.25. The greenback did see some bullishness as well as it gained 50 pips against the JPY and closed at 93.56.

Investment bank Goldman Sachs reported strong profits yesterday, but economic signals from the United States and Europe dimmed optimism that a global recovery may be on the horizon. In addition, U.S. retailers beat expectations with a 0.6% sales rise in June, boosted by a big jump in auto sales. But excluding both autos and gasoline, sales were down 0.2 % in a fourth consecutive monthly decline. The slight rise in risk appetite also boosted higher-yielding currencies at the expense of both the Yen and USD, which tend to see their biggest gains when investors grow anxious and buy them as safe havens.

USD trading will be interesting today as important economic data is expected to be released. From 12:30 GMT a series of economic indicators will begin to be released, starting with Core CPI figures, the Empire State Manufacturing Index, Industrial Production and Crude Oil Inventories. Surprisingly, almost all of these releases are expected to be higher than their previous figures, meaning the USD could show bullishness today. Traders are also advised to follow FOMC Meeting Minutes at 18:00 GMT. This meeting is very important as it is very likely to impact the Dollar's volatility. Traders are advised to watch closely, as this is likely to set the pace of the Dollar going into the rest of this week's trading.

Forex Demo Account

Almost every broker offers a free forex demo account to new clients. This is used as a marketing gimmick by most of the brokers in order to entice new people to forex trading. All you need to do is to sign up with any good forex broker. The best way for new traders to get a handle on what currency trading is all about is to open a demo account.

Forex demo account gives you the great chance to experience the forex market without losing your real money. You can see how the price changes at different times of the day. Demo accounts are funded with virtual money. So you are able to make trades with no real money at stake and gain experience in how margin trading works. The more you use the practice account, the more familiar you will become with how the forex market works. This will help build your confidence. Confidence is what you need when trading live. 

Without any fear of losing money, you can trade your demo account with real market conditions. Practice trading will teach you how various currency pairs may differ from each other? It will also teach you how the forex market reacts to new information when major news and economic data is released.

You will also learn using different market orders on your demo account. Imagine using your real money trying to figure out how different market orders work. You will learn on your demo account how to manage an open position? This will improve your understanding of how margin trading and leverage works. You can also start analyzing charts and following technical indicators on your practice account. Without any fear of losing your money, you can experiment with different trading strategies and see how they work out in the real market conditions.

You can test drive almost all the features and functionality of a broker’s platform on your demo account. However, one thing you will never be able to simulate on your practice account is the emotions involved in trading. Controlling emotions is important in order to become a successful trader. Emotions will only come into play once you put your real money on the line. Demo accounts are a great way to experience real forex markets first hand.

You can use market orders like the limit orders or the one cancels the other orders. However, you can also trade the current price of the market using the click and deal feature of your broker’s platform. There are many ways to pull the trigger in the forex market. Pulling the trigger means how to enter or exit a position.

Many traders don’t want to leave an order that may or may not get executed. Most like the idea of opening a position by trading at the market. Most prefer the certainty of knowing that they are in the market.

You just need to specify the amount that you want to trade. Then click on the buy or sell button to execute the trade. The forex trading platform will respond back within a second or two with a pop-up message either confirming or not confirming that the position was opened. Most forex brokers provide live streaming prices. You can deal with these live price feeds with a simple click of your computer mouse.

You should understand and know from the get go that any action you take on a trading platform is basically your own responsibility. You cannot blame anyone except yourself. You may have meant to click Sell but instead you clicked Buy. No one knows for sure except you. Forex demo account is the ideal place to learn forex trading and avoid these costly mistakes.

If you don’t want to blow your account repeatedly, double your demo accounts three times in a row only then trade live. First practice on your demo account instead of jumping into live trading!

The US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index Futures Contracts are traded on the New York Board of Trade at Finex and at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). The US Dollar Index is widely quoted in the press and on quote services and is used by traders to get the big picture of the overall trend of the dollar. 

The Federal Reserve Board had introduced the US Dollar Index in 2003. The index is the result of the Smithsonian Agreement that had replaced the Bretton Woods Agreement. The US Dollar Index is similar to the Fed’s Dollar Index which is a trade weighted index. The Fed gives value to each individual currency in the index based on how much it trades with the US.

However, the US Dollar Index and the Fed’s Dollar Index should not be confused with one another. The value of US Dollar Index and the Fed’s Dollar Index is different. The US Dollar Index futures contract expires on March, June, September and December. The minimum tick on the US Dollar Index is 0.1. One tick is equals $10.

Delivery is physical and means that you receive dollars based on the value of the index. Delivery is made on the second business day during the month of the expiring contract prior to the third Wednesday. The overall value of the futures contract on the index is 1,000 times the value of the index in dollars. Suppose the value of the index is 80. It’s value in dollars will be $ 8,000.

No trading limits are placed on the US Dollar Index. Trading hours are from 8.05 AM to 3:00 PM. There is overnight trading also from 7 PM to 10 PM. Delivery day of the US Dollar Index Futures Contract is the third Wednesday of the contract month. 

The US Dollar Index was modified at the inception of the Euro. It is weighted in a way that’s similar to the Fed’s trade weighted index as follows: Highest percentage is for Euro 57.6%, second highest is Japanese Yen 13.6%, third highest is Great Britain Pound 11.9%, then comes Canadian Dollar 9.1%, Swedish Krona 4.2% and Swiss Franc 3.6%. The US Dollar Index is best used as an indicator of trends in the forex market.

However, you must keep this in your mind that as compared to trading currencies, the US Dollar Index is not a good trading vehicle. The best way to trade the index is by using the currency mutual funds. There are a few good currency mutual funds that you can find. You should know that one of the secrets of knowing trading success is understanding what kind of personality you have. You should know whether you are weak nerved or strong nerved.

If you are weak nerved than spot forex market is not for you! Suppose you fear that the market will move against you. You are afraid of taking a bathroom break or even a coffee for that matter. You can’t even blink your eye afraid that you will end up with a margin call. In such a case you need to invest in currency mutual funds based on US Dollar Index and relax. 

You can avoid a big part of the risk involved in trading spot currency market by trading currency mutual funds. You can have a pretty good idea as to how your fund is going to close at the end of the day if you check the dollar index a few times during the day. This will smooth your nerves and make you relax. If trading makes you tense and nervous, you should think about doing something else. Maybe trading is not for you.

FAPTurbo Evolution

Fapturbo Evolution has gone gold. A few days ago I already mentioned about the Fapturbo Evolution from the same team that developed the world renown The Fapturbo robot...The Fapturbo Evolution just pushes forex trading to the next level and it just went live today:

FAPTurbo Evolution

Check out the proofs about the robot that manages USD 117,369 Real Money Account...the first robot in the world that has 100% successful rate... Depending on what time you read this it may already be too late. The FAPTurbo Evolution Edition trading robot has been unleashed on the Forex world today and as you read this post, I can tell you that there are already thousands of other traders scrambling to the website to get a copy. I know that you do not want to be left behind and the doors are officially opened now so head on over to the following link to get your copy:

FAPTurbo Evolution

If you're still on the fence about whether to get it or not, let me give you the low down on this digital monster. Here's what we know about the FAPTurbo Evolution Edition trading robot so far:

* This is the only Forex robot in existence that is able to double real money deposits every month since the year 1999.
* The trading robot was beta tested on live accounts and the live statements can be seen on the site. (The latest results of yesterdays trades are there as well)
* There is a members zone built to make it as easy as possible for you to get up and running.
* There are Phone support lines ready to answer even the most basic questions.
* The robot was specifically designed to work with only one broker.
* Dukascopy only deals with the larger clients and their dealing desk has been designed for high performance, lightning fast execution. Only banks get this level of service.
* Additional tweaking and optimization was performed on the robot to ensure maximum quality.
* The robot trades 3 currency pairs.
* No more Metatrader lags and execution delays.
* True Interbank environment - no dealing desk tricks and spread-price manipulation.
* There is an automated installer and easy to follow guide included.
* You also get video tutorials and a how to install step by step guide.

FAPTurbo Evolution

Trading The Forex Market Is Now Easy
Every one knows that. What these guys have provided us with is the perfect solution. Does this sound like the kind of trading solution you need? Just think about this for a second:

* There is NO analysis required.
* There is NO thought required.
* There is NO judgment required.
* There is NO emotion required.

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Breakout Trading

When the currency price moves beyond the period of consolidation or range trading, a breakout typically occurs. Massive profits are what breakout trading can provide you. Who doesn’t want to reap massive profits from a big price move in a short time?

Even though breakouts are known to be technically unstable, there are times when trading the breakout can be very profitable. When the price moves above or below a support or resistance level whether temporarily or permanently, a breakout occurs.

You will have to take into account many market factors including both the technical and the fundamental analysis in order to trade breakouts with a higher probability of success. 

Both stocks and futures are traded on a centralized exchange. At the end of the day the traders can find out the volume of each security that had been traded during the day. The volume information is easily available for stocks and futures. Information about volume is critical to trading the breakout. 

This data cannot be collected due to the decentralized nature of the currency markets. Volume data is not available for currency markets due to its Over the Counter nature. Lack of forex volume data is a huge disadvantage to forex traders. Volume reveals where the market is positioned or positioning.

Breakout signals a change in the underlying supply and demand conditions possibly triggered by a change in market sentiments. When the price attempts a breakout of a significant support or resistance level, this change is caused by some new markets fundamentals. Successful breakouts are generally accompanied by a rise in volume. Volume is a very important criterion for any breakout trading strategy.

Price breakouts can be of two types: 1) Continuation Breakouts and 2) Reversal Breakouts. Successful breakouts must be accompanied with a strong surge of momentum in the direction of the breakout in order to be sustainable. Poor momentum will generally lead to the fizzling out of the breakout and continuation of the existing trend.

Continuation Breakout: The price action climbs higher in continuation of an uptrend or falls further lower in a downtrend in a continuation breakout. The breakout occurs after a period of consolidation. The buyers and sellers of the currency pair try to regroup and think about the next price move. Currency prices break out of an established price level to again resume the underlying trend.

Reversal Breakout: A breakout my lead to a trend reversal and the beginning of a new trend in the opposite direction! Reversal breakout means a new trend in the opposite direction caused by new market fundamentals.

Forex Slippage

You should know the problem of slippage and how to avoid it if you want to successfully trade the news. Slippage occurs when the price you intend to enter or exit the market is different from your actual transacted price. Currency prices tend to move very fast during highly volatile market conditions. The risk of slippage is usually very high when trading the news.

Placing stop loss or market entry orders under fast moving market conditions do not guarantee anything. These orders do get filled but mostly at different prices than you had intended. Slippage is the biggest problem when the market moves fast. There is no way you can avoid it. Some of it is genuine. During times when too many orders are placed by the traders, most forex brokers cannot offset these orders in the interbank market due to the small amounts involved. They have to take the opposite positions themselves. This gives them the chance to take the excuse of slippage.

Most of the brokers had taken the opposite position themselves as the fast moving market did not allow them to offset these orders in the interbank market. As the broker has the opposite position, if you lose, the broker wins and makes profit. The broker is in fact trading against you now. Many forex brokers will wait till after the big market move is over. Then they will fill your entry order. Sometimes, these entry orders may even get filled past your stop loss or profit target. This means that you would be left with immediate net loss.

Slippage is a trick that many forex brokers use in order to make profit by filling your position with a negative spread. Before filling your entry order with wide slippage, many brokers will fill your stop loss or take profit order. The wider the slippage, the fatter the profits the broker is going to make. Imagine the number of orders placed with each forex broker and the amount of profits the broker makes from one such single event. 

Let’s make it clear with an example. Imagine your profit limit for the EUR/USD is 1.2594. Your long entry stop for EUR/USD at 1.2564! The forex broker may first fill your take profit at 1.2594 and then fill your long entry stop at 1.2604 with a 40 pips slippage. 

You were confident that you would make a winning trade. If the orders had been filled at the prices you wanted, your trade would have resulted in a profit. But now you have a net realized loss. If the trade goes against you, the forex broker may fill your stop loss order first and then fill your entry order with slippage after that so as to widen their profits. With slippage you cannot predict anything what the broker will do with you.

Now imagine you had placed your stop loss at 1.2544 and your long entry stop at 1.2564. Your forex broker could first fill your stop loss at 1.2544 and then fill your long entry stop at 1.2594 with a slippage of 30 pips. You now have a net loss of 50 pips due to slippage instead of planned 20 pips loss. You could never imagine that you would end up with a loss of 50 pips.

You should know as an individual trader that your orders will be kept pending till you get stopped out or your profit limit is reached during the release of news when the market moves fast. The more you stand to lose and the more the forex broker stands to make a profit, the larger the slippage you experience. Some forex brokers add slippage to any of your orders to increase their profits during times of fast moving markets when the volatility is high.

Bold 2009 Prediction for You

Here's my bold prediction for you in 2009!

You will break your trading resolutions by the end of February.
You will abandon your trading plan
You will fall into the same destructive trading patterns you resolved to change
Your account will earn the same or less than in 2008 
I know this this sounds harsh, but statistically speaking, that's what will happen to most traders. So, are you going to let this happen to you?

True, statistics cover populations and not individual traders. The fact is, its traders who are outside of th enorm and trade with focused discipline that really achieve their financial goals. When is now the time to re-focus with discipline and dedication and really commit yourself to your trading plan?

Today is January 15, 2009 and February is just around the corner. 

Let this be your wake-up call!

Be honest with yourself and focus with the discipline of a seasoned trader on staying true to your trading plan or risk becoming a statistic!

Happy "Disciplined" Trading!!

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